Weather Forecasting in the Tropics

Darwin, Australia, 10 June 2019


This workshop aims to bring together forecasters and researchers to review current challenges of weather forecasting in the Tropics. A special focus will be on forecasting precipitation as well as the ability and limitations of current models in forecasting severe weather. The workshop is seen as a sequel to that held in nearly two decades ago in Darwin (Smith et al., 2001: Proceedings of an International Workshop on the Dynamics and Forecasting of Tropical Weather Systems. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2825-2829).

The workshop will include a series of review talks by eminent researchers and presentations from forecasters outlining current challenges in forecasting significant weather in the Tropics. It is planned to schedule copious time for discussion and the Workshop will aim to produce a set of recommendations for future research.


08:45 Introduction: Roger Smith
09:00–10:30 Forecaster presentations

Ian Shepherd
Overview of forecasting issues in the Australian tropics

Jackson Browne
Broad-scale influences on tropical low development and monsoon onset over northern Australia

Christopher Kent
Satellite monitoring of convection and heavy rainfall in the Australian tropics

Nicholas Loveday
Probabilistic rainfall forecasting techniques used by Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasters

10:30–11:00 Coffee
11:00–11:30 Christian Jakob: Challenges in rainfall prediction using global models
11.30-11:45 Discussion
11:45-12:15 Todd Lane: Challenges in predicting rainfall using mesoscale models
12:15-12:30 Discussion
12:30-14:00 Lunch
14:00-14:30 Michael Reeder: Mid-latitude influences on the tropics
14:30-14:45 Discussion
14:45-15:15 George Kiladis: Equatorial waves and quantitative precipitation forecasts in operational models
15:15-15:30 Discussion
15:30-16:00 Tea
16:00-17:00 Discussion and formulation of Recommendations for the way ahead